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& AirDisaster.com
Everything looks
good …
Aviation Set For 20 Year Boom
A doubling of the world's civil aircraft fleet and
an aviation market worth USD$4.9 trillion is forecast over the next
20 years by an influential market survey.
As the airline business struggles through one of its
worst ever periods, the optimistic outlook comes from the 2002 Current
Market Outlook, released by the Boeing company
at the
The report, widely regarded as the most comprehensive
and respected analysis of the commercial aviation market, reflects
the reality of a more competitive industry and a growing -- and to
some extent aging -- worldwide airplane fleet.
"The shift from a regulated to liberalized market
has increased competition among airlines and is forcing them to operate
at much higher levels of efficiency to remain profitable," said
Randy Baseler, Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice president - Marketing.
"Passenger preference for more frequent, non-stop
flights with shorter trip times, will continue
to drive market evolution and airline strategies. After all, air travel
is all about passenger convenience and saving time," he said.
Boeing estimates the world fleet will double to almost
33,000 jets by 2021, comprising around 17,200 new planes for market
growth; 6,700 for replacement and more than 8,500 airplanes that currently
are flying.
The planes will be needed to accommodate a 4.9 percent
increase in air travel. The survey expects
Boeing projects airlines will invest USD$1.8 trillion in new commercial passenger aircraft, which equates to about 24,000 airplane deliveries over the next 20 years. It also forecasts that 2500 planes will be added to the world's cargo fleet over the next 20 years.
But…
Terror Anniversary Empties The Skies
Airline passengers are deserting the skies on the
anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks, forcing US carriers
to drop over 3000 domestic flights.
International services have also been affected,
particularly on transatlantic routes. The evidence comes from the
airline schedule publisher OAG in a survey conducted for the Financial
Times.
The report shows that American carriers are planning
to cut 3200 flights from their schedules on that day and both US and
European airlines are making big reductions in long haul services
due to lack of demand.
There will be an 11 percent drop in US domestic
flights next Wednesday with more than 330,000 seats removed from the
market, according to OAG.
The company describes the situation as "clearly
a blip for a very sad reason."
Accident Survey
Sends Chilling Message
Airline
safety in the first six months of 2002 plunged to its worst level
for several years as a huge increase in accidents, in which 716 people
lost their lives, sent out a chilling message. The figures come from
Flight International's six monthly review of airline safety. Since
they were compiled a further 71 people have died in the mid-air collision
over southern
The
shocking statistics would have been even worse had the review included
the fatal crash of a China Northern Airlines MD-82, in which 112 people
died. They have been excluded because there is growing suspicion that
the crash was caused by sabotage. A total of 18 fatal accidents happened
between January and June this year, a relatively low figure compared
to the average for the past ten years.
However,
seven involved mainline passenger aircraft which,
says the review, is an unusually high number. There was only one fatal
accident involving a regional passenger plane.
The
review points out that there was a massive increase in one category,
Controlled Flight Into Terrain (CFIT). On
average this is the accident category that causes most deaths because
it involves the kind of crash least likely to have survivors.
Human
error was a likely factor in 13 of the 18 fatal accidents and in all
of the CFIT crashes, says the survey.
Flight
International concludes by saying that the first half of the year
is usually the better part from the accident point of view, but the
second half of 2002 has started disastrously with the mid-air collision
last month.
The
work of safety organizations seems to have been in vain, says the
widely respected aviation industry journal. The message
is: "Back to
the drawing board."
The
The
Transport Ministry said it was prepared to step in after a letter
from controllers called for immediate government action to pump in
money and recruit more staff for the partly-privatized service.
Without
help, the controllers union Prospect said that delays and safety risks
at National Air Traffic Control Services would grow.
A
statement from the Department of Transport said: "We recognize
that NATS finances do need strengthening. All parties with an interest
in that are working together towards a long-term solution that will
put NATS finances on a sound footing.
"The
government is prepared on the right terms to match investment in NATS
by a third party."
The
controllers fears were highlighted in a letter
from David Luxton, secretary of their union,
which appeared in the Independent on Sunday newspaper. "The combination
of financial pressures and operational overload will lead to air traffic
safety being compromised and service levels degraded," it said.
This
latest warning came on top of criticism of the service voiced last
week by an influential group of politicians. The House of Commons
Select Committee on Transport said a "cost-cutting and penny
pinching mentality" threatened the
NATS
was bailed out earlier this year by a GBP£30 million (USD$46.8 million)
injection of government cash. The government has since been trying
to find a private sector partner willing to pump in more and is currently
talking with airports operator BAA.
A
group of British airlines took a 46 percent stake in NATS when it
was partly privatized last year, but since then has run into a series
of set-backs.
The
downturn in air traffic since the terror attacks of September 11 have
thrown its revenue forecasts into disarray and it has been refused
permission to raise fees to airlines by the Civil Aviation Authority.
A
new air traffic control center, which came
on stream last January several years behind schedule, has been plagued
with teething troubles and further dented NATS reputation.
At
least 19 killed in Brazilian Embraer 120
crash.
Reuters
RIO BRANCO,
The plane carrying 28 passengers
and three crew crashed at about 7 p.m./2400 GMT in a field near the
Rio Branco airport in the state of
Earlier, police said as many
as 24 people may have died, but only 17 bodies have been recovered
from the crash site. Two survivors later died in the hospital and
rescue workers are still searching for five people, who they believe
were killed in the crash.
Police said heavy rains made
access to the crash site especially difficult.
"Some bodies were hurled
more than 200 meters (218 yards) from where the airplane crashed,"
a fire squad chief told the local Estado
news agency.
It was the third incident
in
In
Seventeen bodies were transported
to the Rio Branco morgue and nine survivors
were sent to a local hospital, the morgue said. Two of the survivors,
including Congressman Ildefonso Cordeiro
of the centrist Brazilian Social Democratic Party, later died.
Seven people were hospitalized,
with three placed in intensive care, said Eduardo Farias, a doctor at the
Officials have opened an investigation
to determine the cause of the crash.
Earlier on Friday, a TAM Fokker-100
jet landed in a grassy field a short distance from a farmhouse near
the town of
Another TAM Fokker-100 was
forced to land at Viracopos airport in the
city of
Two Brazilian
F-100s in forced landings.
Reuters
SAO PAULO, Brazil (Reuters)
- Two Fokker 100 jets belonging to Brazil's TAM airline made separate
emergency landings on Friday in the same state, one at a farm and
another in a city airport, although no one was seriously hurt.
The first mid-sized Fokker
100 jet landed in a grassy field a short distance from a farmhouse
near the town of
Television images showed the
white-and-red plane had been banged up and its tail-end had been partly
torn. Small pieces of the plane littered a cow pasture.
TAM said in a statement none
of the 24 passengers on board were seriously hurt, although four were
treated for light scrapes and sprains.
Passenger Jose Jorge Rezende told Globo television the
landing had been rough.
"The plane was ruined.
The wheels were torn off, it was ripped up on the inside, pieces
of the plane flew off. And a cow was killed ... or at least it's almost
dead," he said.
TAM later confirmed another
Fokker 100 was forced to land at the international airport of Viracopos in the city of Campinas,
which lies about 60 miles northwest of Sao Paulo, without any landing
gear. None of the 42 passengers were hurt, TAM said.
Globo reported the plane
made the emergency landing after it had hydraulic problems with its
landing gear. It skidded 440 yards on a runway on which emergency
crews had sprayed foam.
TAM,
SERIES OF FOKKER PROBLEMS
The mishaps follow a series
of accidents involving TAM's 108-seat Fokker
100s and come as the company struggles through a tough period for
the Brazilian airline industry, which has seen its dollar-based fuel
and parts costs skyrocket the past two years due to a sharp depreciation
of the local currency.
Maintaining Fokker planes
became even more expensive after the Dutch manufacturer went bankrupt
in 1997. TAM is in the process of replacing them with new Airbus and
possibly locally made Embraer jets.
"There's not an abnormal
history of problems (with the Fokker 100s), but they are expensive
and you have to keep feeding them," said Richard Aboulafia,
vice president of the Teal Group, a Washington-based aerospace consulting
group.
In
On April 3 the door of a TAM
Fokker 100 fell off after take-off, but the plane turned around and
landed safely. In September 2001, one passenger was sucked out of
a TAM Fokker 100 and three were injured in a forced landing after
a loss of cabin pressure.
TAM said the first plane was
flying from
47 uninjured in
Associated Press
There were no apparent injuries
among the 40 adult passengers, three children and four crew members
on board. It was not immediately known what kind of plane was involved.
Allen Mojica,
spokesman for the Asian Spirit Airlines, said the airplane was flying
from
He said the landing gear on
one side of the plane then failed to deploy when the airplane landed
in
A company executive said the
airplane circled
